Iowa farmers eye relief as US and China move toward trade deal
Iowa soybean farmers could soon see long-awaited relief as the United States and China edge closer to a trade agreement that may reopen the world’s largest market for American soybeans.
After months of stalled exports and tariff retaliations, a framework between the two nations was finalized Sunday, setting up a potential deal when President Donald Trump meets Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this week.
China traditionally buys more soybeans from the U.S. than any other country, but tariffs imposed during a trade dispute left farmers with millions of unsold bushels this year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates a 2025 soybean yield of 4.3 billion bushels — one of the largest in decades — yet none have been sold to China.
“This was one of the biggest crops in 20 or 30 years,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday, adding that the deal could be “very successful” for farmers in the years ahead.
For Iowa — the nation’s second-largest soybean producer — the timing is critical. Iowa State University agricultural economist Chad Hart said China still has a gap of roughly 200 million bushels of demand for December and January.
“If an agreement can be made in time, that would be the likely target for U.S. sales,” Hart said.
Grassley: Soybean exports to China will be on Trump’s trade agenda
Even if trade resumes, Hart cautioned that farmers will still need government aid to offset the losses since August.
“There would still be the need for some support, but (a timely deal with China) helps lessen that blow,” he said.
Farmers are facing deep uncertainty as they plan next year’s crops amid delayed federal aid and a partial government shutdown that has stalled the new farm bill. Despite strong yields, prices have remained flat and below production costs, Hart said, adding that many producers are making decisions “under a level of uncertainty we’re not used to seeing.”
The potential breakthrough comes as Trump continues his Asia tour, where he also signed economic frameworks with Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia aimed at improving trade in critical minerals. But for Iowa farmers, the real focus remains on China — and whether this deal can restore their biggest export market before the winter window closes.
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'This is awful discouraging': Iowa farmer warns of potential crisis as China halts soybean purchases
