Tracking Rafael: The latest maps, models and paths

AREA THAT'S GOING TO SEE THE MOST RAIN FROM RAFAEL RIGHT NOW. A TROPICAL STORM WITH 45 MILE PER HOUR WINDS. SO IT'S NOT A TERRIBLY STRONG SYSTEM. IT IS STARTING A LITTLE BIT STRONGER BECAUSE THE PRESSURE LOWERED. THERE'S NOT MANY 7 WHEN THE FIRST ADVISORY FOR RAFAEL CAME OUT. THEN THE PRESSURE ROSSO ACTUALLY WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT UP TO 1000 MILLIBARS. NOW IT'S BACK DOWN TO 9.96 AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 12 MILES AN HOUR THAT CONTINUE, THE PRESSURE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO LOWER AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND THE WINDS WILL PICK UP. SO IT'S GOING TO STAY A TROPICAL STORM. BUT AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MOST LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WE'LL SEE A HURRICANE DEVELOP AND THIS COULD BE VERY STRONG ON THE CATEGORY ONE SIDE OF THINGS UP TO 90 MILES PER HOUR, THE HURRICANE CENTER HAD IT AND A CATEGORY 2, BUT THEY'VE WEEKEND THAT JUST A LITTLE BIT. SO NOW SHOULD BE A CATEGORY ONE AT LANDFALL. BUT A 90 MILE AN HOUR HURRICANE GOING OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THEN BACK OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AGAIN, PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST AND THEN TURNING INTO THE NORTH OR THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AND WE'RE ALSO WATCHING ANOTHER AREA KIND OF A REALLY DISORGANIZED AREA RIGHT NOW. THAT'S HERE IN THIS YELLOW SHADED AREA. IT'S A LOW END CHANCE OF DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. BUT IT'S THE ONLY AND THE THING OTHER THAN RAFAEL THAT WE'RE WATCHING RIGHT NOW IN THE ATLANTIC. SO WHAT WE'RE DEALING WITH WITH RAFAEL, THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MEMBER CATEGORY ONE STORM IS GOING TO BE EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THOSE WILL STAY AWAY FROM SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, BUT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPAN THE ENTIRE STATES, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA. IT'S GOING TO GO ALL THE WAY OVER TO THE EAST COAST. THAT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND AT THE BEACHES, IT'S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE THAT YOU'RE GOING TO SEE WINDS 40 MILES PER HOUR OR HIGHER AS YOU WORK INLAND, THE CHANCE GOES DOWN TO 10%. SO THE GUSTIEST OF THE WINDS ARE GOING TO BE AT THE BEACHES. SO LET'S GO AHEAD AND FAST FORWARD. THIS WIND GUST TRACKER INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE'RE GOING TO HAVE ABOUT 20 TO 25 MILE AN HOUR. WIND GUST. IT WILL ACTUALLY BE ON THURSDAY MORNING. SO HERE WE ARE ON THURSDAY AT 07:00AM. YOU SEE THOSE REDS? THOSE ARE YOUR TROPICAL STORM FORCE. WIND KIND OF HUGGING THE BEACHES. MOST OF THE HEAVIEST OF THE WIND WILL STAY OFFSHORE. BUT I'D SAY FROM US, 41 OFF TO THE WEST. WE'RE ALL FAIR GAME FOR SOME THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUST TO 40 MILES AN HOUR AND THEN WE SHOULD GET 35 TO 40 MILES AN HOUR TO PUSH OVER TO I-75 BRIEFLY AND THEN WORK BACK OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOW, AS FAR AS THE RAIN WE'RE GOING TO SEE FROM THIS AGAIN, IT'S GOING TO BE THE COASTAL AREAS THAT IT'S GOING TO SEE THE MOST RAIN WE COULD SEE ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TOTAL UP HERE TO THE WEST OF US. 41 WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN. AGAIN, STAYING JUST OFFSHORE. THERE OF COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY. SO IT'S GOING TO BE A REAL CLOSE CALL. THERE COULD BE ONE OR 2 AREAS, AGAIN, ISOLATED 4 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN. BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCE IN THE MOST RAIN AS FAR AS THE ACCUMULATION WILL BE RIGHT THERE AT THE BEACHES. GOING TO SEE THE UPPER 80'S NEXT FEW DAYS. AND IN FACT, OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, DESPITE THE FACT THAT WE GET LOW HUMIDITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND. IT STAYS KIND OF WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WE SHOUL

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the season. Here's a look at the latest track:LATEST CONELATEST MODELSINTENSITY MODELHow hurricanes are ratedThe Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based on a hurricane's sustained winds, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Category 3 and above are considered major hurricanes, but precautions should still be taken for Category 1 and Category 2 storms. NOAA and Weather.gov put together the following information that explains how each storm category is defined and what type of damage is expected.Tropical DepressionA tropical depression is a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds (one-minute average) of 38 mph or less.Tropical StormA tropical storm is a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds ranging from 39-73 mph.Category 1: Sustained winds of 74-95 mphVery dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.Category 2: 96-110 mphExtremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.Category 3: 111-129 mph (Major Hurricane)Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.Category 4: 130-156 mph (Major Hurricane)Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.Category 5: 157 mph or higher (Major Hurricane)Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the season. Here's a look at the latest track:

LATEST CONE

Hearst Owned

LATEST MODELS

Hearst Owned

INTENSITY MODEL

hearst

How hurricanes are rated

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based on a hurricane's sustained winds, according to the . Category 3 and above are considered major hurricanes, but precautions should still be taken for Category 1 and Category 2 storms. NOAA and put together the following information that explains how each storm category is defined and what type of damage is expected.

Tropical Depression

A tropical depression is a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds (one-minute average) of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm

A tropical storm is a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds ranging from 39-73 mph.

Category 1: Sustained winds of 74-95 mph

Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.

Category 2: 96-110 mph

Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.

Category 3: 111-129 mph (Major Hurricane)

Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.

Category 4: 130-156 mph (Major Hurricane)

Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Category 5: 157 mph or higher (Major Hurricane)

Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

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