����vlog

IN AN APPARENT ASSASSINATION. CHARLIE KIRK, A RISING STAR ON THE RIGHT, SHOT WHILE SPEAKING ON A UNIVERSITY CAMPUS. THIS IS A DARK MOMENT FOR AMERICA RIGHT NOW ON ����vlog. CLOSE UP HIS LASTING IMPACT ON THE CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT. A LOT OF THE WORK HE HAS DONE AND HIS COLLEAGUES HAVE DONE HAVE MOTIVATED ME TO PROMOTE MY IDEAS. PLUS, WHAT ARE THE RISKS TO DEMOCRACY WHEN POLITICAL VIOLENCE BECOMES PART OF OUR REALITY? THE DIFFICULT PATH FORWARD AS THE NUMBER OF THESE INCIDENTS RISE. THIS IS IOWA’S NEWS LEADER. THIS IS ����vlog EIGHT NEWS. CLOSE UP. GOOD MORNING AND THANKS FOR JOINING US FOR ����vlog EIGHT NEWS CLOSE UP. I’M CHIEF POLITICAL REPORTER AMANDA ROOKER. I THINK ALL OF US ARE COMING OFF OF A VERY HEAVY WEEK. THE COUNTRY REELING AFTER THE DEATH OF CHARLIE KIRK, THE 31 YEAR OLD CONSERVATIVE POLITICAL ACTIVIST WAS A TOP ALLY OF THE WHITE HOUSE AND IS CREDITED WITH TURNING OUT THE YOUTH VOTE FOR PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP. KIRK WAS ON A SPEAKING TOUR AT UTAH VALLEY UNIVERSITY. HE SET UP HIS PROVE ME WRONG TABLE, WHERE HE ENCOURAGED PEOPLE WHO DISAGREED WITH HIM TO DEBATE AN ISSUE. DURING A DEBATE ABOUT MASS SHOOTINGS, A GUNMAN SHOT KIRK. HE WAS PRONOUNCED DEAD AT A NEARBY HOSPITAL. KIRK WAS KNOWN AS A FIREBRAND IN THE CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT. HE CO-FOUNDED TURNING POINT USA, THE ORGANIZATION THAT ADVOCATES FOR CONSERVATIVE POLITICS ON HIGH SCHOOL AND COLLEGE CAMPUSES. I TALKED TO IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY STUDENTS ABOUT KIRK’S SEISMIC IMPACT ON THE CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT. IT WAS DUMBFOUNDED. ON IOWA STATE’S CAMPUS, THE NEWS IS STILL SINKING IN. CONSERVATIVE ACTIVIST CHARLIE KIRK SHOT AND KILLED AT A COLLEGE EVENT, A SPACE MEANT FOR FREE SPEECH AND DEBATE. I FELT MY HEART DROP INTO MY STOMACH, AND I HAD TO WALK OUTSIDE OF MY CLASS TO TAKE A BREATHER BECAUSE IT JUST HIT ME ALL AT ONCE. BRANDON SIMMONS LEADS IOWA STATE’S COLLEGE REPUBLICANS. HE SAYS HE GREW UP WATCHING KIRK AND FOLLOWING THE GROUP, KIRK FOUNDED TURNING POINT USA, WHICH ADVOCATES FOR CONSERVATIVE POLITICS ON HIGH SCHOOL AND COLLEGE CAMPUSES. YOU CAN’T DENY THAT HE HAS HAD A PROMINENT IMPACT ON DISCOURSE. A LOT OF THE WORK HE HAS DONE AND HIS COLLEAGUES HAVE DONE HAVE MOTIVATED ME TO STEP UP, YOU KNOW, OUTWARD, TO PROMOTE MY IDEAS. SIMMONS SAYS KIRK’S DEATH RAISES NEW QUESTIONS ABOUT SAFETY FOR STUDENT LEADERS IN POLITICS. IF IT CAN HAPPEN TO CHARLIE, IT CAN HAPPEN TO ME. IT CAN HAPPEN TO ANY OF MY CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN COLLEAGUES. NATIONAL RESEARCHERS SAY THE KILLING REFLECTS A DANGEROUS TREND OF RISING THREATS AND HARASSMENT IN POLITICAL SPACES. I THINK INCLUDING THE EVENTS, THE TRAGIC EVENTS OF YESTERDAY WERE IN A IN A FAIRLY DANGEROUS INFLECTION POINT. SHANNON HILLER IS THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE BRIDGING DIVIDES INSTITUTE AT PRINCETON UNIVERSITY. SHE SAYS STOPPING POLITICAL VIOLENCE STARTS WITH CONDEMNING IT. I THINK SOMETIMES WHEN PEOPLE TALK ABOUT TURNING DOWN THE TEMPERATURE, THEY THINK WE MEAN STOP DISAGREEING ON POLICY. AND THAT CAN’T POSSIBLY BE TRUE, RIGHT? WE HAVE TO FIND WAYS TO DISAGREE EVEN VEHEMENTLY, WITHOUT RESORTING TO THREATS, HARASSMENT AND VIOLENCE. IT’S A MESSAGE SIMMONS SAYS HE’LL CARRY FORWARD ON CAMPUS. POLITICAL VIOLENCE IS NOT THE ANSWER. YOU KNOW, POLITICAL VIOLENCE IS A SIGN OF A DECLINING SOCIETY. AND THE WAY TO REMEDY THAT IS THROUGH PUBLIC DISCOURSE, UNIVERSITY OF IOWA COLLEGE DEMOCRATS SENT ����vlog A STATEMENT. IN IT, THEY OFFER SYMPATHY TO THE VICTIMS, REJECT POLITICAL VIOLENCE, AND URGE THE COUNTRY TO UNITE BEHIND LEGISLATION TO END IT. DRAKE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE REPUBLICANS HELD A VIGIL TO HONOR KIRK ON CAMPUS. THE ORGANIZERS SAY SHE’S TOUCHED BY THE TURNOUT. THERE’S A LOT OF DIVISION, BUT THERE’S ALSO A LOT OF LOVE OUT THERE. AND I THINK AT THE END OF THE DAY, WE NEED TO FIND A WAY TO GET TO THAT LOVE AND WE NEED TO LEARN HOW TO HAVE RESPECTFUL DIALOGS ACROSS THE AISLE. THERE IS ANOTHER VIGIL SCHEDULED FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AT 7:00. THAT’S AT THE IOWA STATE HOUSE. THAT ORGANIZER SAYS THIS IS A NONPARTISAN EVENT AIMED AT UNITING PEOPLE FROM ALL POLITICAL BACKGROUNDS TO CONDEMN POLITICAL VIOLENCE. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP CALLED KIRK A, QUOTE, GIANT. THE DAY AFTER HIS DEATH. LET ME EXPRESS THE HORROR AND GRIEF SO MANY AMERICANS AT THE HEINOUS ASSASSINATION OF CHARLIE KIRK HAVE FELT. CHARLIE WAS A GIANT OF HIS GENERATION, A CHAMPION OF LIBERTY AND AN INSPIRATION TO MILLIONS AND MILLIONS OF PEOPLE. THE PRESIDENT ALSO SAID HE WOULD BE AWARDING KIRK THE PRESIDENTIAL MEDAL OF FREEDOM. THE DATE FOR THAT CEREMONY HAS NOT BEEN ANNOUNCED YET. IOWA POLITICAL LEADERS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE WEIGHED IN ON KIRK’S PASSING. GOVERNOR KIM REYNOLDS SHARED HER CONDOLENCES, WRITING IN PART, QUOTE, CHARLIE WAS BELOVED BY MANY FOR STANDING UP FOR CONSERVATIVE VALUES. IOWA STATE AUDITOR ROB SAND, WHO IS A DEMOCRAT ALSO RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR, SAID IN PART, QUOTE, WHETHER IT WAS THE ASSASSINATIONS IN MINNESOTA EARLIER THIS SUMMER OR THE SHOOTING TODAY, I’M DISGUSTED BY THE ESCALATION OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE ACROSS OUR COUNTRY. AUDITOR SAND MENTIONED ANOTHER RECENT EXAMPLE OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE ON THE RISE. THE NUMBERS OF THESE INCIDENTS ARE GROWING. I SPOKE TO THE RESEARCH MANAGER AT ACKLEY, A GROUP THAT TRACKS POLITICAL CONFLICTS IN REAL TIME. HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE THE CURRENT STATE OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN THE UNITED STATES? WE’VE SEEN A RISE IN THE PAST TWO YEARS, ESPECIALLY INCIDENTS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE THAT ARE CARRIED OUT BY INDIVIDUALS WHO HAVE HIGHLY IDIOSYNCRATIC POLITICAL BELIEFS. THAT DOES NOT NECESSARILY ALIGN WITH ANY SORT OF MORE MAINSTREAM POLITICAL BELIEFS OR THE POLITICAL AGENDAS OF ANY OF THE MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES IN THE UNITED STATES. AND THIS TREND IS REALLY CONCERNING, BECAUSE IT MEANS THAT VIOLENCE IN MANY CASES IS BEING CARRIED OUT FOR VIOLENCE’S SAKE, RATHER THAN TO SERVE SOME SORT OF COHERENT POLITICAL AGENDA, WHICH ALSO CREATES PROBLEMS FOR TRACKING THIS KIND OF VIOLENCE AND BEING ABLE TO ANTICIPATE AND PREVENT IT. WHAT STANDS OUT TO YOU ABOUT THE MURDER OF CHARLIE KIRK, ESPECIALLY WITH IT HAPPENING ON A COLLEGE CAMPUS? CERTAINLY, WHEN IT COMES TO THE INCIDENT ITSELF, IT’S VERY SHOCKING TO SEE THAT THE SHOOTER APPEARED TO BE ON A ROOF QUITE SOME DISTANCE AWAY FROM KIRK, AND THAT THERE APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SOME INITIAL CONFUSION ABOUT WHERE THE SHOT CAME FROM THAT MAY HAVE ALLOWED THE SUSPECT TO ESCAPE. THIS ISN’T THE FIRST TIME WE’VE SEEN A HIGH LEVEL, TARGETED, ACTIVE POLITICAL VIOLENCE INVOLVING AN INDIVIDUAL USING A LONGER RANGE WEAPON ON A ROOF. OF COURSE, WHAT COMES TO MIND IS THE FIRST ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT AGAINST TRUMP LAST YEAR. THAT’S ALSO CONCERNING. I THINK FOR MANY AMERICANS, THIS MOMENT FEELS REALLY HEAVY RIGHT NOW. AS YOU MENTIONED, THERE’S BEEN A TREND OR OR MULTIPLE INCIDENTS OF OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE RECENTLY, AND EACH OF THOSE HAVE FELT REALLY HEAVY. JUST SPEAK TO, YOU KNOW, THE FEELING OF THIS MOMENT FOR, FOR OUR COUNTRY. I THINK WHENEVER SOMETHING HORRIBLE HAPPENS, WE SEEK FIRST TO MAKE SENSE OF IT AND NOT JUST AFTER THIS INCIDENT, BUT AFTER SEVERAL OF THE MOST RECENT INCIDENTS, THE HORRIBLE SHOOTINGS OF THE STATE LAWMAKERS IN MINNESOTA EARLIER THIS YEAR COMES TO MIND AS ONE OF THE FRESH EXAMPLES, THE MASS SHOOTING IN MINNESOTA OF THE CATHOLIC SCHOOL LAST MONTH, AND IN MANY OF THESE INSTANCES, IT’S HARD TO DERIVE ANY COMFORT FROM BEING ABLE TO MAKE SENSE OF THESE INCIDENTS BECAUSE THEY DEFY SENSE IN MANY CASES, AND IT LEAVES SOME SPACE FOR CONFUSION AND FEAR. ON ONE HAND, AND FOR THE NARRATIVE TO BE UNCERTAIN AND CONFUSED ON THE OTHER HAND, WHICH ALSO COMES WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DANGERS. SO I THINK NOT ONLY UNDERSTANDING HOW TO MAKE SENSE OF THIS MOMENT, BUT HOW TO MAINTAIN PEACE. AND TO KEEP EVERYTHING LEVEL. THOSE ARE DIFFICULTIES. I THINK MOMENTS LIKE THIS ALSO DEMAND LEADERSHIP AT EVERY LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT. AS I MENTIONED EARLIER, FEELINGS OF FEAR AND UNCERTAINTY. ARE MOMENTS THAT CAN LEAD TO BREWING TENSIONS AND OUR POSSIBILITIES FOR ESCALATION. SO IT’S IMPORTANT FOR LEADERSHIP TO. PEOPLE IN LEADERSHIP POSITIONS TO DO WHAT THEY CAN TO ENSURE THAT THAT DOESN’T HAPPEN. STILL, TO COME ON, CLOSE UP, DOZENS OF IOWANS ARE ALREADY RUNNING FOR THE 2026 MAJOR RACES. HOW CANDIDATES CAN STAND OUT IN COMPETITIVE PRIMARIES. PLUS, WE TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT HOW IOWA’S MIDTERM ELECTIONS FIT INTO THE NATIONAL LANDSCAPE. STAY WITH US. IOWA’S GOVERNOR, ONE IOWA SENATOR AND LIKELY TWO MEMBERS OF CONGRESS ARE NOT RUNNING FOR REELECTION IN 2026. AND IT’S RARE IN IOWA POLITICS TO SEE THIS MANY HIGH PROFILE RACES WIDE OPEN. AT THE SAME TIME. POLITICAL STRATEGISTS SAY THAT’S FUELING THE UNUSUALLY LARGE NUMBER OF CANDIDATES WHO ARE ALREADY ASKING FOR YOUR VOTE. SEATS DON’T COME OPEN THAT OFTEN HERE IN IOWA, AS WE’VE SEEN FROM CHUCK GRASSLEY, AS WE’VE SEEN FROM PAST GOVERNORS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST ERIC WOLFSON SAYS DOZENS OF CANDIDATES SEE IOWA’S 2026 RACES AS THEIR TICKET TO WASHINGTON. HE ALSO SAYS HOT BUTTON ISSUES ARE PUSHING EVEN MORE PEOPLE INTO THE RACE. WHETHER IT’S THE EMINENT DOMAIN ISSUE, WHETHER IT’S, YOU KNOW, PEOPLE THAT FEEL STRONGLY ABOUT PRESIDENT TRUMP OR FEEL THE OTHER WAY ABOUT PRESIDENT TRUMP, THERE’S THERE’S A LOT OF STRONG EMOTIONS INVOLVED. BUT CROWDED PRIMARIES BRING CHALLENGES LIKE SPLITTING THE VOTE IN IOWA, CANDIDATES HAVE TO EARN AT LEAST 35% TO WIN. IF THEY DON’T, THE RACE GETS DECIDED AT A PARTY CONVENTION. WHEN YOU HAVE 4 OR 5 CANDIDATES IN A RACE, GETTING TO THAT 35% CAN BE REALLY TOUGH. ONE OF THE CHALLENGES IS CARVING OUT THE TIME TO CAMPAIGN, AND IN CARVING OUT THE TIME TO REALLY PAY A LOT OF ATTENTION TO THOSE CONVENTION DELEGATES. ANOTHER CHALLENGE FUNDRAISING. WITH SO MANY BIG RACES ON THE BALLOT, MONEY COULD BE SPREAD THIN. THERE’S CERTAINLY GOING TO BE THOSE ANNOYING TEXT MESSAGES AND THOSE URGENT EMAILS THAT EVERYBODY GETS AND DRIVES THEM CRAZY. BUT I THINK AT THE END OF THE DAY, PEOPLE ARE GOING TO APPRECIATE THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR REALLY COMPETITIVE RACES AROUND THE STATE. DESPITE THE HURDLES, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST MATT PAUL SAYS CONTESTED PRIMARIES CAN ULTIMATELY MAKE CANDIDATES STRONGER, MAKES THEM THEIR MESSAGE IS SHARPER. IT HELPS WITH THEIR FUNDRAISING SKILLS. IT HELPS BUILD AN ORGANIZATION. SO I THINK THE MORE THE MERRIER IN THESE RACES. RIGHT NOW, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DOZENS RUNNING RIGHT NOW, ����vlog POLITICAL ANALYST DENNIS GOLDFORD WARNS IF CANDIDATES CAN’T SECURE SUPPORT, CROWDED FIELDS COULD THIN OUT. I WOULD WANT TO SEE AT THIS POINT WHERE IN EARLY SEPTEMBER, LET’S SEE WHO’S STILL IN THE RACE ON NEW YEAR’S EVE, BECAUSE THAT COULD CHANGE. WHEN WE COME BACK, WHY TWO OF IOWA’S U.S. HOUSE RACES ARE CONSIDERED SOME OF THE MOST COMPETITIVE IN THE COUNTRY, AND THE OTHER TOP CONTESTS, PUTTING IOWA IN THE SPOTLIGHT. WELCOME BACK TO CLOSE UP. I’M JOINED NOW BY KYLE KONDIK. HE’S THE MANAGING EDITOR OF SABATO’S CRYSTAL BALL AT THE CENTER FOR POLITICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA. THANKS SO MUCH FOR JOINING US ON THE SHOW TODAY. THANKS FOR HAVING ME. WELL, YOU KNOW, SABATO’S CRYSTAL BALL IS A WIDELY FOLLOWED, NONPARTISAN NEWSLETTER THAT TRACKS ALL THINGS AMERICAN CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS. YOUR TEAM ANALYZES EVERY SENATE, HOUSE AND GOVERNOR’S RACE IN THE COUNTRY. SO I WANT TO START TODAY WITH, YOU KNOW, WHEN YOU LOOK AT IOWA’S POLITICAL MAP HEADING INTO 2026, WHAT STANDS OUT TO YOU? WELL, IOWA HAS REALLY MOVED STRONGLY TOWARD THE REPUBLICANS. YOU KNOW, IN THE TRUMP ERA. ALTHOUGH I GUESS YOU COULD SAY THAT THE 2014 ELECTION, WHEN JONI ERNST WAS FIRST ELECTED TO THE SENATE, WAS ALSO KIND OF AN INDICATOR AS TO WHERE THE STATE THE STATE MAY HAVE BEEN HEADING. YOU KNOW, THERE HAVE BEEN CERTAIN STATES ACROSS THE COUNTRY THAT HAVE CHANGED A LOT IN THE TRUMP ERA. SOME STATES THAT GOT MORE DEMOCRATIC, I THINK VIRGINIA IS ONE. COLORADO IS ANOTHER, GEORGIA. OTHER STATES HAVE CLEARLY GOTTEN MORE REPUBLICAN. I PUT IOWA IN THAT GROUP, AND ALSO OHIO AND SOME OTHER PARTS OF THE OF THE MIDWEST. AND SO THE QUESTION IS, IS, YOU KNOW, DEMOCRATS ACTUALLY STILL HAD A PRETTY GOOD ELECTION IN IOWA IN 2018. THEY WON THREE OF THE FOUR HOUSE RACES. IS THAT SOMETHING THAT THEY COULD REPLICATE OR AT LEAST COME CLOSE TO DOING IN 2026? IF IT’S A DEMOCRATIC WAVE YEAR? YOU KNOW, MIDTERMS CAN OFTEN BREAK AGAINST THE PRESIDENTIAL PARTY. IS THAT SOMETHING THAT’S IN PLAY IN IOWA IN 2026, OR IS THE STATE KIND OF CLOSED THE DEMOCRATS NOW? AND WE’VE SEEN SO MUCH MOVEMENT ALREADY. NOW WE KNOW THAT IOWA WILL HAVE BOTH AN OPEN SENATE RACE AND AN OPEN GOVERNOR’S RACE. I THINK THE LAST TIME THAT THAT HAPPENED AT THE SAME TIME WAS 1968, YOU KNOW, JUST FROM YOUR PERSPECTIVE, HOW UNUSUAL IS IT TO SEE TWO LARGE OPEN RACES LIKE THAT AT THE SAME TIME IN A STATE? AND DOES IT CHANGE IN ANY WAY? IOWA, HOW IOWA FITS INTO THE NATIONAL MIDTERM PICTURE. YOU KNOW, FOR A SMALL STATE THAT ONLY HAS FOUR CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS AND SIX ELECTORAL VOTES, THERE’S A LOT GOING ON IN IOWA IN 2026, BECAUSE YOU COULD ARGUE THAT AT LEAST TWO AND MAYBE THREE OF THE STATE’S FOUR CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS COULD BE COMPETITIVE IN IN 2026. I MEAN, WE WE VIEW THE THE THIRD AND FIRST DISTRICTS AS, AS TOSS UPS ALREADY. AND MAYBE IOWA TWO WOULD GET MORE COMPETITIVE. NOW IT’S AN OPEN SEAT. PLUS YOU’VE GOT AN OPEN SENATE RACE AND AN OPEN GOVERNOR’S RACE. AS YOU MENTIONED. I’M NOT GOING TO SAY THAT IT’S UNPRECEDENTED FOR THIS LEVEL OF ACTIVITY AND FOR THIS NUMBER OF OF OPEN SEATS AT THE TOP LINE LEVEL. BUT IT IT DOES SUGGEST, YOU KNOW, A LOT OF INTERESTING THINGS GOING ON IN IOWA. AND SO, AGAIN, EVEN AS A SMALL STATE, IT’S IT’S KIND OF AT THE CENTER OF THE, THE POLITICAL MAP FOR 2026, PARTICULARLY WHEN YOU TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT. SO THE REPUBLICANS, I THINK, SHOULD FEEL PRETTY GOOD ABOUT BEING ABLE TO HOLD THEIR SENATE MAJORITY IN 2026, IN PART BECAUSE THE DEMOCRATS NEED TO WIN FOUR NET SEATS TO FLIP THE SENATE MAJORITY, AND THE REPUBLICANS ARE ONLY DEFENDING TWO SEATS IN STATES THAT DONALD TRUMP EITHER LOST OR WON BY LESS THAN TEN POINTS. NORTH CAROLINA THAT TRUMP NARROWLY WON, AND MAINE, WHICH IS A STATE THAT KAMALA HARRIS WON IN ORDER FOR DEMOCRATS TO WIN THE SENATE, THEY HAVE TO WIN PROBABLY TWO OR AT LEAST TWO SENATE RACES IN STATES THAT TRUMP CARRIED BY TEN POINTS OR MORE. IOWA IS POTENTIALLY ONE OF THOSE SEATS. SO IF IOWA IS REALLY COMPETITIVE NEXT YEAR, MAYBE THAT ACTUALLY INDICATES THE SENATE MAJORITY IS UP FOR GRABS IN A WAY IN WHICH IT MAYBE DOESN’T SEEM LIKE IT WOULD BE AT THIS POINT IN THE CALENDAR. AND I WANTED TO ASK YOU SPECIFICALLY ABOUT THAT SENATE RACE. NOW THAT WE KNOW THAT ERNST IS OUT AND CONGRESSWOMAN ASHLEY HINSON IS GOING TO RUN FOR THIS SEAT, HOW DOES THAT IMPACT HOW YOU CLASSIFY HOW COMPETITIVE IOWA SENATE RACE IS? WE STILL CALL IOWA SENATE RACE LIKELY REPUBLICAN, SORT OF THE SAFEST RATING IS SAFE REPUBLICAN. AND THEN IT GOES TO LIKELY OR LEANS OR TOSS UP. AS I MENTIONED, THE FIRST AND THIRD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS ARE TOSS UPS IN OUR RATINGS. SO WE STILL VIEW REPUBLICANS AS PRETTY STRONG FAVORITES TO HOLD THE SENATE SEAT. BUT, YOU KNOW, IT IS AN OPEN SEAT. NOW, I THINK THERE ARE A LOT OF REPUBLICANS WHO SEEM PRETTY COMFORTABLE WITH REPRESENTATIVE ASHLEY HINSON IS, YOU KNOW, SORT OF THE REPLACEMENT CANDIDATE FOR FOR JONI ERNST. BUT BUT, YOU KNOW, YOU JUST GOT TO WATCH IT AND SEE HOW COMPETITIVE IT GETS. YOU KNOW, THE DEMOCRATS HAVE A COMPETITIVE PRIMARY OF THEIR OWN THAT THEY’RE GOING TO HAVE TO SORT OUT. SO IT’S I WOULDN’T SAY THAT IT’S A TOP TIER RACE NOW, BUT IT IS A SLEEPER HEADING INTO 2026. IS THERE ANYTHING SPECIFICALLY ABOUT ASHLEY HINSON AND WHAT SHE BRINGS TO THE RACE? YOU KNOW, IT BEING AN OPEN SEAT, BUT ALSO, YOU KNOW, ERNST HAD SOME BAGGAGE OR VULNERABILITIES HERSELF. YOU KNOW, A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE TALKING ABOUT THAT WHEN SHE WAS WEIGHING WHETHER OR NOT SHE WAS GOING TO RUN. HOW MUCH DOES THAT KIND OF PLAY INTO THIS RACE? GENERALLY SPEAKING, YOU’D RATHER HAVE AN INCUMBENT RUNNING THAN AN OPEN SEAT. AND I DON’T THINK ERNST WAS LIKE SO DAMAGED THAT, YOU KNOW, THAT SHE WAS A WEAK INCUMBENT OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. I WOULDN’T GO THAT FAR. YOU KNOW, SHE DID MAKE A COMMENT ABOUT MEDICAID THAT I THINK CERTAINLY WOULD HAVE BEEN USED IN THE CAMPAIGN AGAINST HER. YOU KNOW, HINSON, I THINK HAS BEEN A PRETTY DECENT ELECTORAL PERFORMER. YOU KNOW, SHE DID, YOU KNOW, FLIP A SEAT IN, IN, IN IN 2020 THAT, YOU KNOW, PREVIOUSLY BEEN WON BY A DEMOCRAT IN 2018. AND YOU KNOW WASN’T REALLY IN IN PARTICULARLY CLOSE RACES IN EITHER 2022 OR 2024. SO YOU KNOW, AGAIN, I THINK REPUBLICANS ARE PRETTY COMFORTABLE WITH HER AS THE AS SORT OF THE REPLACEMENT CANDIDATE FOR ERNST. I THINK A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON, WELL, HOW, YOU KNOW, HOW STRONG IS THE EVENTUAL DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE AND WHAT’S THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT LIKE? I MEAN, WE HAVE SEEN IN IOWA, THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL STATE LEGISLATIVE SPECIAL ELECTIONS WHERE DEMOCRATS HAVE REALLY DONE GREAT, PARTICULARLY COMPARED TO THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS. YOU KNOW, THAT SAID, THE TURNOUT IN THOSE RACES IS ALWAYS GOING TO BE NOT JUST SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN WHAT YOU’D SEE IN A PRESIDENTIAL YEAR, BUT EVEN IN A MIDTERM YEAR. AND SO THAT MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A RELIABLE SNAPSHOT OF WHAT THE ELECTORATE NEXT YEAR WOULD LOOK LIKE. BUT THERE’S SOME INTERESTING THINGS GOING ON IN IOWA. YOU KNOW, YOU ALSO GOT TO REMEMBER THAT THAT EVEN IN 2018 UNDER IN KIND OF A BAD POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT NATIONALLY, YOU KNOW, REPUBLICANS DID STILL HOLD THE OPEN OR WASN’T AN OPEN SEAT GOVERNOR’S RACE. BUT KIM REYNOLDS WON HER FIRST, YOU KNOW, ACTUAL ELECTED TERM AS GOVERNOR THAT YEAR. YOU KNOW, IF THERE HAD BEEN A SENATE RACE IN IOWA, KIND OF AN OPEN QUESTION, I THINK, AS TO WHAT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED. BUT BUT AT LEAST AT THE AT THE STATEWIDE LEVEL, IOWA REPUBLICANS DID HOLD UP, OKAY. IN IOWA IN 2018. YOU KNOW, WE’LL HAVE TO SEE ABOUT ABOUT 2026. A KEY THING TO REMEMBER ABOUT THE STATE IS THAT EVEN THOUGH IT’S GOT FOUR CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS, THREE OF THE FOUR DISTRICTS ARE ACTUALLY MORE COMPETITIVE THAN THE STATE AS A WHOLE, BECAUSE THE FOURTH DISTRICT IS SUPER DUPER REPUBLICAN. AND SO YOU COULD HAVE A SITUATION WHERE ALL THREE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS ARE COMPETITIVE, OR MAYBE EVEN ONE BY DEMOCRATS ON A GREAT NIGHT FOR THEM. BUT THE STATE ITSELF WOULD ACTUALLY VOTE A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THOSE THREE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS AND IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, YEAH. AND TALKING ABOUT THOSE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS, YOU KNOW, OUT OF ALL 435 U.S. HOUSE RACES, YOU ONLY HAVE 18 ON THAT MOST COMPETITIVE LIST, TWO OF THOSE BEING IOWA’S FIRST AND THIRD DISTRICT RACES IN THAT TOP TOSS UP CATEGORY. YOU KNOW, HOW BIG OF A ROLE COULD THOSE TWO RACES PLAY IN THE BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE U.S. HOUSE IN 2026? I THINK THEY’RE EXCEPTIONALLY IMPORTANT, AND ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE’RE WATCHING AND IS SORT OF MADE THE HOUSE PICTURE OVERALL CLOUDIER IS THAT YOU’VE GOT THESE MID-DECADE REDISTRICTING EFFORTS GOING ON IN STATES ACROSS THE COUNTRY. YOU KNOW, THE TRUMP WHITE HOUSE IS TRYING TO SQUEEZE AS MANY SEATS AS THEY CAN OUT OF TEXAS, WHICH ALREADY PASSED THE MAP. MISSOURI IS CONSIDERING BASICALLY ADDING, YOU KNOW, TAKING AWAY A SAFE DEMOCRATIC SEAT, MAKING IT SAFE. REPUBLICAN INDIANA IS THINKING ABOUT THE SAME THING. CALIFORNIA, MEANWHILE, WHICH HAS AN INDEPENDENT REDISTRICTING COMMISSION. THEY’RE ASKING VOTERS TO APPROVE A NEW DEMOCRATIC GERRYMANDER, WHICH WOULD HELP MAKE UP FOR THE SEATS THAT DEMOCRATS MIGHT BE LOSING ELSEWHERE. BUT THEN YOU KIND OF GOT TO, YOU KNOW, BEYOND THE REDISTRICTING, YOU GOT TO FOCUS ON THE SEATS THAT ARE ALREADY COMPETITIVE AND WHERE THE MAP, THE LINES AREN’T GOING TO CHANGE AND THEY’RE NOT GOING TO CHANGE. IN IOWA. AND YOU’VE GOT, YOU KNOW, TWO TOSS UPS IN IOWA ON A MAP THAT REALLY DOESN’T HAVE A LOT OF TOSS UPS. AS YOU AS YOU MENTIONED, YOU KNOW, LESS THAN, YOU KNOW, LESS THAN 20 AT THIS POINT. AND, YOU KNOW, THE THE IOWA’S THIRD DISTRICT, WHICH IS THE DES MOINES DISTRICT, THAT IS, I THINK, KIND OF KIND OF MORE OF A BATTLEGROUND DISTRICT ON PAPER. I WILL ONE IS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BIT MORE REPUBLICAN LEANING, BUT MARIANNETTE MILLER-MEEKS, OF COURSE, ALMOST LOST IN, YOU KNOW, CAME VERY CLOSE TO LOSING IN 2024. AND SHE’S PROBABLY GOING TO FACE A REMATCH WITH HER WITH HER OPPONENT IN 2022 AND 2024. CHRISTINA BOHANNAN SO YOU KNOW, THAT ONE IS ALSO ONE. THAT’S ONE THAT’S REALLY ON THE ON THE ON THE TOSS UP LIST THIS YEAR. AND QUICKLY, I WANTED TO ALSO TOUCH ON IOWA’S SECOND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT. RIGHT NOW THE CRYSTAL BALL HAS THAT RATED AS LIKELY REPUBLICAN. BUT THAT WAS STILL WITH ASHLEY HINSON IN THE RACE. NOW THAT THIS IS AN OPEN SEAT, I MEAN, IT’S A DISTRICT THAT’S BEEN SOMEWHAT RELIABLY REPUBLICAN, PROBABLY THE THIRD LEAST LIKELY TO FLIP. BUT HOW DOES THIS BEING AN OPEN SEAT MAYBE CHANGE THINGS AS YOU’RE THINKING ABOUT THE RATINGS? YEAH, I MEAN, IF YOU RESPECT ASHLEY HINSON AS A AS A SENATE CANDIDATE, I DO. AND I THINK I THINK OTHERS DO TOO. YOU ALSO HAVE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT, YOU KNOW, YOU’RE LOSING THAT CANDIDATE IN IN IOWA, IN THE SECOND DISTRICT. SO I COULD POTENTIALLY, YOU KNOW, WE HAVEN’T MOVED THAT RACE TO A MORE COMPETITIVE CATEGORY. I COULD I’M SORT OF THINKING ABOUT WHETHER WE MAYBE WE SHOULD DO THAT. MAYBE THAT’S SOMETHING WE’LL, YOU KNOW, WE’LL I THINK THAT’S SOMETHING WE WOULD CONSIDER IN THE, YOU KNOW, IN THE FUTURE, AS WE SEE HOW THE CANDIDATE FIELD EMERGES. BUT I DO THINK THE FIRST AND THE THIRD ARE STILL THE MORE KIND OF INTERESTING AND COMPETITIVE RACES. BUT AND AGAIN, A LOT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT IS NEXT YEAR. YEAH. AND THERE’S A LOT THAT COULD HAPPEN WITH MORE THAN A YEAR STILL UNTIL THE ELECTION. KYLE, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US TODAY. THANKS FOR HAVING ME. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US THIS MORNING FOR ����vlog EIGHT NEWS CLOSE UP. WE’LL SEE YOU BACK HERE NEXT SUNDAY. HAVE A GREAT DAY AND A GREAT WEEK AHEAD.