President Donald Trump has cast a spotlight on crime in several cities across the United States.Washington, D.C., was the first target when, in early August, Trump deployed National Guard troops to crack down on crime. Now, the president has said Baltimore and Chicago are next.“(Washington, D.C.,) serves as a template, and we’re going to do it elsewhere,” Trump said in a Sept. 2 news conference.As Trump centers crime in the national conversation, there are limits to what experts can and cannot say with crime statistics.The FBI publishes some of the most complete statistics, but no database can perfectly capture the nation’s crime. One of the FBI’s crime measurement resources is the National Incidents-Based Reporting System. It contains data on all crimes reported to participating local law enforcement agencies. NIBRS can only provide information on crimes brought to police, but not all crimes that occur are reported. Research shows that sexual assault is often underreported, and cases of petty crime like minor theft may not always be officially brought to the police.The data also depends upon reliable entries from local law enforcement agencies. When an agency first adopts NIBRS, there may be errors as it becomes accustomed to the new system. Ernesto Lopez, senior research specialist at the nonpartisan Council of Criminal Justice, said that while errors are a concern for researchers, there is no good tool to detect them outside of major discrepancies. He said that while they do occur, they are not necessarily nefarious.“If you’re looking across the nation, I don’t think (data entry errors) have a major effect, in part because there’s a chance the error goes both ways,” Lopez said.The FBI has a second way to measure crime that attempts to adjust for undercounts and data entry issues by sampling 150,000 households across the nation. The National Crime Victimization Survey is based on interviews with people who may disclose crimes that occurred but were not reported to police. The NCVS is only national, and does not provide a city-by-city breakdown.Experts say that while NIBRS and the NCVS both have advantages and disadvantages, they generally affirm one another and reflect accurate trends.“If you look at the trend lines, they look very similar even though they are completely different data collections,” said James Nolan, a professor at West Virginia University who studies crime and worked for the FBI’s crime analysis unit from 1995 to 2000.Gaps in data collectionOnly about 80% of law enforcement agencies report to NIBRS. Pennsylvania and Florida have the smallest percentage of agencies reporting to NIBRS, which leaves over half of their populations uncovered.“Participation is voluntary and there is no mandatory reporting cadence,” a representative from the FBI said in a statement. The data is also limited by its speed of release. The FBI’s NIBRS data for 2024 just came out in August 2025, eight months delayed. Just this year, the FBI has started releasing monthly reports, but not every agency submits monthly data.“The problem with crime statistics is, a lot of the time, we just don’t have up-to-date data, which is a particular frustration of mine,” said Eric Piza, a professor of criminology at Northeastern University. “There is no other public good where we stand for this lag.”The crime stats we do knowWhile there are limitations, the FBI data is what many experts use to analyze the nation's crime issues.The cities that Trump has pointed to as being riddled with crime and murder — Baltimore, Washington, D.C., and Chicago — are ranked fourth, 10th and 24th, respectively, among cities with the highest rate of murder per 100,000 residents. In terms of violent crime, they are ranked fifth, 36th and 120th. This is among reporting cities with populations greater than 100,000.The FBI cautions against doing city-by-city rankings with its data. Many things can affect crime rates in a city, like economic conditions and population density.Densely populated urban areas typically see more crime, so the rates could be skewed softer for cities that have sprawling suburban areas included in their population counts.The Get the Facts Data Team analyzed which cities have the highest rates of homicides and motor vehicle theft using the FBI’s NIBRS data. Experts pointed to those two crimes as the most solidified categories, as there is less likely to be undercounts compared with other types of crime.Birmingham, Alabama, St. Louis, Missouri, and Memphis, Tennessee, had the three highest homicide rates among large U.S. cities in 2024. Memphis also ranked high in terms of motor vehicle theft rate, along with Oakland, California, and Kansas City, Missouri. In Oakland, there were over 2,250 cars stolen per 100,000 people in 2024.As for violent crime — which includes homicides, rape, robbery and aggravated assault — Memphis, Oakland and Detroit, Michigan, had the highest rates among large cities.These calculations should be taken in context and cannot offer a complete picture of crime. They are only a snapshot of 2024 crime rates and do not take into account a locality’s history of crime management.There may be slight variations between the national numbers and what local jurisdictions report. Some of those discrepancies are due to different definitions of homicide and motor vehicle theft.PHNjcmlwdCB0eXBlPSJ0ZXh0L2phdmFzY3JpcHQiPiFmdW5jdGlvbigpeyJ1c2Ugc3RyaWN0Ijt3aW5kb3cuYWRkRXZlbnRMaXN0ZW5lcigibWVzc2FnZSIsKGZ1bmN0aW9uKGUpe2lmKHZvaWQgMCE9PWUuZGF0YVsiZGF0YXdyYXBwZXItaGVpZ2h0Il0pe3ZhciB0PWRvY3VtZW50LnF1ZXJ5U2VsZWN0b3JBbGwoImlmcmFtZSIpO2Zvcih2YXIgYSBpbiBlLmRhdGFbImRhdGF3cmFwcGVyLWhlaWdodCJdKWZvcih2YXIgcj0wO3I8dC5sZW5ndGg7cisrKXtpZih0W3JdLmNvbnRlbnRXaW5kb3c9PT1lLnNvdXJjZSl0W3JdLnN0eWxlLmhlaWdodD1lLmRhdGFbImRhdGF3cmFwcGVyLWhlaWdodCJdW2FdKyJweCJ9fX0pKX0oKTs8L3NjcmlwdD4=
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump has cast a spotlight on crime in several cities across the United States.
Washington, D.C., was the first target when, in early August, Trump deployed National Guard troops to crack down on crime. Now, the president has said Baltimore and Chicago are next.
“(Washington, D.C.,) serves as a template, and we’re going to do it elsewhere,” Trump said in a Sept. 2 .
As Trump centers crime in the national conversation, there are limits to what experts can and cannot say with crime statistics.
The FBI publishes some of the most complete statistics, but no database can perfectly capture the nation’s crime.
One of the FBI’s crime measurement resources is the National Incidents-Based Reporting System. It contains data on all crimes reported to participating local law enforcement agencies.
NIBRS can only provide information on crimes brought to police, but not all crimes that occur are reported. Research shows that sexual assault is often underreported, and cases of petty crime like minor theft may not always be officially brought to the police.
The data also depends upon reliable entries from local law enforcement agencies.
When an agency first adopts NIBRS, there may be errors as it becomes accustomed to the new system.
Ernesto Lopez, senior research specialist at the nonpartisan Council of Criminal Justice, said that while errors are a concern for researchers, there is no good tool to detect them outside of major discrepancies. He said that while they do occur, they are not necessarily nefarious.
“If you’re looking across the nation, I don’t think (data entry errors) have a major effect, in part because there’s a chance the error goes both ways,” Lopez said.
The FBI has a second way to measure crime that attempts to adjust for undercounts and data entry issues by sampling 150,000 households across the nation. The National Crime Victimization Survey is based on interviews with people who may disclose crimes that occurred but were not reported to police. The NCVS is only national, and does not provide a city-by-city breakdown.
Experts say that while NIBRS and the NCVS both have advantages and disadvantages, they generally affirm one another and reflect accurate trends.
“If you look at the trend lines, they look very similar even though they are completely different data collections,” said James Nolan, a professor at West Virginia University who studies crime and worked for the FBI’s crime analysis unit from 1995 to 2000.
Gaps in data collection
Only about 80% of law enforcement agencies report to NIBRS.
Pennsylvania and Florida have the smallest percentage of agencies reporting to NIBRS, which leaves over half of their populations uncovered.
“Participation is voluntary and there is no mandatory reporting cadence,” a representative from the FBI said in a statement.
The data is also limited by its speed of release. The FBI’s NIBRS data for 2024 just came out in August 2025, eight months delayed. Just this year, the FBI has started releasing monthly reports, but not every agency submits monthly data.
“The problem with crime statistics is, a lot of the time, we just don’t have up-to-date data, which is a particular frustration of mine,” said Eric Piza, a professor of criminology at Northeastern University. “There is no other public good where we stand for this lag.”
The crime stats we do know
While there are limitations, the FBI data is what many experts use to analyze the nation's crime issues.
The cities that Trump has pointed to as being riddled with crime and murder — Baltimore, Washington, D.C., and Chicago — are ranked fourth, 10th and 24th, respectively, among cities with the highest rate of murder per 100,000 residents.
In terms of violent crime, they are ranked fifth, 36th and 120th. This is among reporting cities with populations greater than 100,000.
The FBI cautions against doing city-by-city rankings with its data. Many things can affect crime rates in a city, like economic conditions and population density.
Densely populated urban areas typically see more crime, so the rates could be skewed softer for cities that have sprawling suburban areas included in their population counts.
The Get the Facts Data Team analyzed which cities have the highest rates of homicides and motor vehicle theft using the FBI’s NIBRS data. Experts pointed to those two crimes as the most solidified categories, as there is less likely to be undercounts compared with other types of crime.
Birmingham, Alabama, St. Louis, Missouri, and Memphis, Tennessee, had the three highest homicide rates among large U.S. cities in 2024.
Memphis also ranked high in terms of motor vehicle theft rate, along with Oakland, California, and Kansas City, Missouri. In Oakland, there were over 2,250 cars stolen per 100,000 people in 2024.
As for violent crime — which includes homicides, rape, robbery and aggravated assault — Memphis, Oakland and Detroit, Michigan, had the highest rates among large cities.
These calculations should be taken in context and cannot offer a complete picture of crime. They are only a snapshot of 2024 crime rates and do not take into account a locality’s history of crime management.
There may be slight variations between the national numbers and what local jurisdictions report. Some of those discrepancies are due to different definitions of homicide and motor vehicle theft.
