Government shutdown fallout could shape Iowa’s 2026 elections
As the government shutdown drags into another week, the blame game in Washington is already spilling into next year’s campaigns. It could have implications on Iowa's key 2026 races.
As the government shutdown drags into another week, the blame game in Washington is already spilling into next year’s campaigns. It could have implications on Iowa's key 2026 races.
As the government shutdown drags into another week, the blame game in Washington is already spilling into next year’s campaigns. It could have implications on Iowa's key 2026 races.
As the government shutdown drags into another week, the blame game in Washington is already spilling into next year’s campaigns. It could have implications for Iowa's key 2026 races.
For the first time in nearly 60 years, Iowans will head into an election without an incumbent for governor or U.S. Senate, and at least two highly competitive congressional races. But before any of that, the fight over the shutdown could shape which party starts the 2026 cycle with momentum.
Democratic strategist Matt Paul said it’s unclear how much the shutdown will influence voters a year from now.
"We'll see how long memories last into the midterm elections," Paul said. "It seems like topics of the day fueling and driving turn out to become shorter and shorter."
While both parties are pointing fingers, Paul said Republicans could bear the brunt of voter frustration over the shutdown.
"Republicans control the White House, and they control the Congress, so they are the ones who I think are going to bear a lot of the responsibility of this shutdown and the impacts that we're seeing," Paul said.
Republicans currently hold a strong voter registration advantage in Iowa, but Paul said Democrats have a chance to capitalize if they can connect with voters on the issues.
He said that compared to a year ago, when Democrats were coming off a disappointing election and facing an uphill battle, the party’s position has improved. Paul pointed to Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, who just wrapped up a 99-county tour drawing strong crowds across the state.
"There's an enormous opportunity for Democrats here if we can capitalize on it and put forward a growth economy strategy and meet people at their kitchen tables and engage on some of these issues like health care and taking care of the most vulnerable people," Paul said.
As Democrats hold out for a deal on health care subsidies, Republicans — including Iowa Senator Joni Ernst — are blaming Democrats for keeping the government closed.
"If Democrats do not allow the government to reopen, half of our states will run out of money to provide SNAP benefits in November. That means millions of children across the country will have food taken away from them by the Schumer Shutdown," Ernst said during a speech on the Senate floor. “This is a particularly cruel way to make a political point."
Republican strategist David Oman said the continued standoff is hurting Americans the most.
"You'll either see people with subject matter expertise, in this case health care, that really work something out and have to sell it to leadership to unclog this," Oman said. "Otherwise, it will just go on and on, and it will be brinkmanship, and that's not good for 330 million Americans."
And as the shutdown continues, Oman says the political fallout will be felt in a historic Iowa election year.
"We are on the cusp of perhaps one of the most exciting political years in an off year — not a presidential year, no caucuses — then we've seen in a long time," Oman said.
