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Pete, my wife is saying every day because we have *** lot of money in our four oh one K. Of course just like *** lot of people were watching it go down and down and down and crater and every day my wife is saying to me, let's get out of this, we need to get out of this like we're losing money by the day and I say, I think that's the opposite of what experts say are supposed to do right now. So Pete, I guess what I'm mainly asking is who's right, me and my wife, you're gonna make me choose aren't you? By the way, you meant you had money in your 40 and K Jeff um and uh yeah, oddly you're right, you're right and here's how I like to explain this, let's say you're driving from Indianapolis to Orlando, it's *** straight line south kind of straight and let's say you have to take *** detour to Kansas city, which is what the markets just done, it's just taking this big detour, you're not gonna get out of your car in Kansas city because you're further away from your goal, it just wouldn't, it wouldn't make sense. So what's happening right in the market is What happens every 10 years or so and it's really easy to freak out and what I tell people generally speaking is don't stare at your account balance, you won't even notice the difference, keep buying into the market because then you're buying at *** lower price, so this is not the time to get out, ride it out and you're actually saying buy more. Now there are some pretty good companies that you can get on sale. Absolutely, there's some good bargains right now. Now I will note you want to make sure you've got *** good emergency fund, *** good cash position as I'm sure we're gonna talk about like the recession is on the horizon and so you want to be *** little bit more cash heavy in case you need to deal with unemployment issues or something like that. But yeah, when the market's down, that's when smart people make money, let's talk about *** possible recession. The Treasury secretary Yellen says that it's not inevitable that we're gonna have *** recession. What are your thoughts about this? And does it really matter? We keep hearing the word recession, is it just is it just semantics, does it really matter if everything is down and inflation is high, whatever you call it? Yeah, it just makes it more difficult to run your household and by that I'm not here to agree or disagree with the Treasury Secretary, but I can I can say this all the signs point to *** recession is on the horizon. You've got high inflation, you've got rising interest rates which is trying to bring down the inflation and so what you're likely to see Jeff is increased unemployment in the next few months. Um which is *** simple byproduct of in 2020, we were all scared and didn't spend any money in 2021, we were excited to spend money. So we spent *** lot of money and 2022 was always going to be like this, there was no chance it wouldn't be like this. Uh And so it's sort of just leveling out of this. So what do you see happening for the rest of the year? Right? The Fed raising interest rates um is that enough? Are they doing enough? When will we see inflation come down? When will prices start dropping? I think you'll start seeing prices drop in the late fall, You're already starting to see the housing market shake up *** little bit with rising interest rates, you're seeing rising mortgage rates and when that happens, *** lot of the service companies that serve the home building community prices start to come down there. So I think you'll start to notice price changes in the late fall. I do have to admit that one of the last things you're gonna see change our food prices, you're not you're not gonna see your beef price come back down where you're used to having it. You're not, you're not gonna see all your vegetables come back down. I think that's gonna take *** little while longer. Why it's really about the supply chain. I mean um the White House this week said that one of the primary reason for inflation is the conflict, the war going on in Ukraine uh where I acknowledge that inflation isn't helped by the war in Ukraine, It's not the primary reason. However, with grain and *** lot of different food supplies going, you know, being produced in the Ukraine, that does affect food prices here. And so you will see increased food prices for the near future at least. Let's talk about gas prices. I mean, it's insane. So the White House is talking about *** *** federal gas tax holiday where they would let that go. Is that enough to do the trick? Yeah, I think the only thing that's gonna change gas prices where people choose to not use as much gas. Now, gasoline has always been what's called in elastic meaning the price goes up and people don't care, they keep using the same amount of gas Jeff? I think to get gas prices under control, people need to start making choices of wind to drive. In fact, Jeff, I would argue this will keep the hybrid work from home situation going longer than it otherwise would have gone because I don't think people are gonna want to get in their cars and drive to work and then pay for an increased lunch price at work. I think *** person can save $200 *** month by simply working from home and not subjecting themselves to all this inflation. So why are companies still telling everyone to go back to the office? There seems to be *** disconnect in that, right? It seems that people want to stay home more and actually in this case you're talking about it actually being helpful financially, right? Not going out for lunch, not paying the gas prices. But then companies are telling people to go back. I will note employers and employees are not aligned on this, employers like myself. We want people here because of collaboration. We wanna it's the conversations in the hallway. They get *** lot done. Not to mention you by *** lot of office space and you want to fill it up. The employee though, says, look, I'm just as good at home. If we need to Collaborate, send me *** text message and by the way, I can work in sweatpants. Um, so I I don't say that judgmental. I just say like, why get in your car, sit in traffic and then eat lunch out and spend *** bunch of money. So I don't think this work from home things gonna sort itself out for another 12-18 months just because of inflation alone. So that's so interesting that if everybody drove just *** little less, that could really potentially right? Because then what you, it's, it's high school economics, it's supply and demand. If demand goes down and supply stays the same, you could see price decreases. But uh, it's summer driving season. I've got *** family trip heading down to charleston south Carolina. We are driving and we will spend hundreds and hundreds of dollars of fuel on fuel and Jeff, there's no way we're not going? So it's not like we see gas prices and go, well we're staying put, no, we've planned this for *** long time we're going But I think people's habits will start to change. People say I'm not actually driving to that side of town today, we'll figure out something else. I think at $6 *** gallon, which is where we're heading. I think people are gonna start making that decision. Let's talk about crypto currency. Uh I own some crypto you want crypto? I do not, I'm not *** big crypto guy, I love talking about it, but it's not my thing. So is this thing gonna crater, is it going to zero? Warren Buffett says this thing is going to zero. He famously said, I think it was *** couple of months ago, if somebody came to me with all the Bitcoin in the world and they were gonna sell it to me for $25, I'd say no thanks. Where do you stand on this? Is it going to zero or is it going back? Well, I make it *** practice to never disagree with Warren Buffett. However, I don't think it's going to zero, but I also think that um we've learned *** lot in the last couple of months about the relation of crypto into the stock market in general, are they aligned, are they heading in the same direction? It was supposed to be *** degree of *** hedge, Jeff, right? You could not expose yourself to the equity market, the stock market and still get some some return out of the crypto market. But if the crypto market crashes right alongside with the stock market, then what value is it really providing? I would also note you're getting *** lot more amateur investors in the crypto marketplace, Just as you had amateur investors in the late 1990s day trading, like I used to write, so I think you're just seeing inexperienced amateur investors learning what volatility really feels like with crypto, I want to talk about the housing market *** little bit. Where do you say there is definitely softening going on? But supply is still low. If you look at *** lot of places, it's not like you have *** ton of supply. *** lot of people are saying, well, hold on, the real estate market is gonna crash, but really isn't it just like it's still gonna go up, but it was going up like this now, it's gonna go *** little slower, like this potential. Yeah. And look, I don't think it's gonna crash. I think it it'll definitely level out and and it's because there'll be there'll be fewer buyers that qualify for the higher priced homes when when interest rates were at 3% or 2.5%. It's pretty easy to afford *** very expensive house depending on your income when that interest rate goes up by three or 4%, the by the market of buyers shrinks significantly. So again, just based on economics alone, if there's less demand because there's fewer buyers, you're gonna see prices relax *** little bit. Not that you're *** real estate expert, but just financially if you're if you have *** home that you plan on selling in the next, You know, 2-3 years, is this the time to sell? Well, wait again, given that I'm not *** real estate expert, I would say you always want to sell at the top of *** market that the challenge of course, as you know, Jeff is then where do you live? You just gonna rent and and feel it out for *** couple of years. I'll note this maybe I'll stay in *** different way. The last thing I would do right now is buy *** home, it would be the absolute last thing I would do. High prices and high lending prices. Makes for *** bad time to buy home. My wife and I bought our home in 2007, which was *** horrible time to buy *** home in retrospect, high prices, relatively high interest rates. Uh and and not that we've had to deal with that for the last 14 years, but it's it's certainly something that affected us for the first few years after that decision mm. Um Do you see interest rates coming down at some point in *** couple of years, Will the Fed pull back on these, will they start cutting once inflation is under control? Do you think We've got *** lot to go before that? And in fact, I would argue, I would like to see the Fed more aggressive. They did *** 75 basis points basis point increase On the federally, I would like to have seen it at 100 basis points, *** full percentage point. I'd like to see him do it again. Um, the sooner they get that done, the sooner the sooner the economy can normalize of what people are used to. It is worth noting that we have had unprecedented economic growth over the last couple of decades and so people are so used to low interest rates and, or you know, amazing stock market and *** robust economy, these things correct. There's balance in the world. So this time we're about to go through, It's going to be eye opening for people who weren't an adult in the last 20 years, right? It's gonna be the first period of time in which they've experienced financial hardship back in like the seventies or was it eighties or seventies? Interest rates are really high, right? Where they're like 9% or Yeah, you hear the stories about grandma had an 18.5% interest rate on their mortgage and you're like, what? How are you leaving? Yeah. You wonder why real estate market wasn't increasing significantly in the late 70s and early 80s is because interest rates were so high, there weren't enough buyers to go into the marketplace to, to make home prices go up. Part of the reason why our housing market has been on fire is because of the low interest rates, the low lending rates. And so it will, it will adjust because it always does when the Fed raises the rates, right? That's also impacting your credit card interest, right? It's not just housing, Everything. You know, it's, it's, it's everything you want to talk about another market that's really gotten out of whack. Is is cars. Uh, you know, the average car payment America as of last month is over $700 *** month. The supply chain is messed up. And so with the higher interest rates that are upon us right now, I think what you're gonna see is that market cool off *** little bit too and he could use it. I mean, it could, I mean by the way, *** car salesperson is not going to tell you they want the market to cool off. But I will notice the supply chain normalizes. And as those interest rates go up, you're going to see, it's easy being